G-8 summit gives chance to gauge Medvedev's power

MOSCOW

Friday, 04 July 2008 10:50:07

By STEVE GUTTERMAN - Associated Press Writer

Dmitry Medvedev's grand debut on the world stage at the Group of Eight summit Monday promises insights into the riddle all Kremlinologists are trying to crack: Is he calling any of the shots as Russia's president _ or is he merely a puppet of Vladimir Putin?

The very fact Medvedev is traveling alone to Japan may indicate he wields more influence than many believed. G-8 protocol, after all, is for member nations to send their most powerful leader to the gathering, whether a president or a prime minister.

From his high-profile hosting of a Russia-European Union summit in Siberia to brash comments made in recent interviews, there have been some signals that Medvedev, beyond expectations, may slowly be growing into his enormous job.

But Russian politics is always an enigma. If the famously wily Putin, now prime minister, has appeared to retreat to the shadows recently _ at least in foreign affairs _ it may be because he wants to present a new face to the West while maintaining control behind the scenes.

Still, analysts are casting the G-8 meeting as a key moment for Medvedev.

The Hokkaido summit will be "a serious test of maturity, his ability to play the role of Russia's leader on a high international level," said Nikolai Petrov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Medvedev's solo trip will help him make the case to the world that he is emerging from Putin's shadow and carving out a leadership role.

"Simply the frequency of mention of the president in an international context will do its stuff: Everyone will get used to the fact that the main person in terms of foreign policy is him and not Putin," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs magazine.

Medvedev may harbor similar hopes.

In an interview with journalists from G-8 countries published Thursday, he suggested that he _ not Putin _ is the man in charge.

Medvedev paid tribute to Putin as an "experienced person, a very popular politician" to whom he can go for advice. "But in the end you have to make the decision yourself," Medvedev said. "And if it's the wrong decision, you'll answer for it yourself."

Dmitry Trenin, a senior associate at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said Medvedev "clearly sees foreign policy as his fiefdom, and Putin is actually playing ball with him on that."

Medvedev's emphasis on the sanctity of freedom and the rule of law has led to Western expectations that he will be more sympathetic to democracy and easier to deal with than the tough-talking Putin.

But the change in tone may be little more than a good cop, bad cop game masterminded by Putin to improve ties with the West, without making real concessions, after boosting his popularity at home by badmouthing the United States and Britain for years.

The lawyerly Medvedev's rhetoric is often milder than the street-inflected style of his predecessor _ and his appeal in Western capitals may have been a major factor in Putin's decision to anoint him in the first place.

"In terms of his generation, his style and his background, Medvedev differs from Putin and is probably closer to Western leaders _ it's easier for him to speak the same language," Petrov said. "But in terms of the essence I think there are no grounds to expect any softening of the Kremlin's position."

Trenin said that at last month's Russia-EU summit Medvedev "clearly wanted to make the impression that he was the czar of Russian foreign policy. And I basically see that Putin is in broad agreement with that."

Medvedev himself suggests his foreign policy won't veer from Putin's.

"It is completely obvious that our foreign policy will be just as pragmatic, predictable and directed toward the protection of Russia's interests as it was under my predecessor, President Putin," Medvedev said in an interview with Japanese journalists published Thursday.

Some analysts say it will take more than a G-8 session for Medvedev to prove he is his own man. They say the president will have to make some dramatic break from Putin _ such as freeing imprisoned former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky or re-instituting direct elections of Russian governors.

"If he declared a war, or stopped one, that would be an event that would allow one to judge the volume of his power," said Lukyanov, the magazine editor.

One thing to watch at the G-8 meeting is whether Medvedev decides to be conciliatory, or confrontational. Neither would signal a break with Putin, but they could help define Medvedev's emerging role in world affairs.

Taking a page from Putin and adding his own flourishes, Medvedev has been highly critical of the United States since taking office, pointing the finger at the U.S. as a chief culprit in the world's financial troubles.

He has signaled a willingness to improve ties with Britain, strained by commercial and diplomatic disputes as well as the radiation poisoning death of Putin critic Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006. But it is not clear how far he is willing to go to mend ties.

Medvedev has expressed confidence that relations with the United States will improve. But President Bush will soon leave office, and the Russian leader has little to gain by cultivating ties with him at the summit.

"For Russia, there's no point now in having any serious conversations with Bush," said Lukyanov. "Now everybody will wait for the next administration."